"The Taliban in Afghanistan and the ELN rebels in Colombia, for instance, reduced their attacks during the first months of the pandemic. "However, there are few reasons to be enthusiastic about this development," said Dr Ide. At the same time, there is little international protest or support as each country is focused on its own struggle with the virus."Īrmed conflict intensity in four countries (Afghanistan, Colombia, Thailand and Yemen) decreased between March and June, according to the study as a result of both state and rebel forces failing to get traction under the pandemic. Increased activities of the Islamic State in Iran are just one example. "What I found was that rebel groups try to exploit situations in which governments are busy with containing the pandemic and its economic fallout. "I looked at the countries that had the most palpable records of conflict," said researcher Dr Tobias Ide, a Discovery Early Career Researcher Fellow from the School of Geography. India, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan and the Philippines all saw an escalation of civil wars because conflict parties exploited either state weakness or a lack of international attention due to the pandemic.
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